The arithmetic behind the tools on this site, explained plainly. No tips, no promotions, and no claims about what you might win.
The margin built into every price, how to calculate it in two lines, and what 5% versus 1% is worth on $1,000 of turnover.
4 min read
Why professionals track CLV rather than win rate, the formula, and how many bets it takes before yours means anything.
5 min read
The arithmetic, the stake split, and the four practical reasons an arb you can see is often one you cannot take.
5 min read
Strip the margin out of a market to get its honest estimate of the true chance — the benchmark that tells you whether any other price is value.
5 min read
The bet-sizing formula worked through with real numbers, and why quarter Kelly is the sensible compromise.
5 min read
How to price a middle from actual results, and why most of the hundred on any board are not worth taking.
5 min read
A bonus bet is not money and its stake is not returned. Hedging converts about 70% of face value into real cash.
4 min read