Who we're tipping in every round 22 game, the expected margin, and the best price of 12 bookmakers.
Our record, graded after every game
73%
8 of 11 winners tipped
2/10
Totals
6/13
Line
Head to head with the market, over the 9 games we can price-check:
Our tips
7/9
78%
Backing favourites
9/9
100%
Favourites win most NRL matches, so beating the market — not the raw strike rate — is the thing worth judging us on. When the market is ahead, this says so.
The headline is our winner tips — the calls on this page. Totals and line are markets our model also grades itself on; they're shown because hiding the weaker ones would make the record worthless. Every pick is graded against the real result once the game finishes, misses included. We publish closing line value — the honest measure of whether a tip was a good bet rather than a lucky one — as soon as enough tips have settled to mean something.
Round 22 still to come
Penrith Panthers v Canberra Raiders
Sat, 1 Aug, 5:30 pm AEST
TipPenrith Panthershighby ~9.5
$1.36 at unibet — best of 12
AI pickour model's read of the odds, form, team news and market moves
Why Penrith Panthers
Market line
Penrith Panthers by 9.5
Total
44.5 points
Best price
$1.36 at unibet, best of 12
At the bookies
Penrith Panthers $1.28 out to $1.34 (+4.4%) · Canberra Raiders $3.65 in to $3.27 (-10.4%)
On the exchange
Canberra Raiders $3.75 on Betfair v $3.24 average at the bookies — exchange rating them less likely than the books
Sharp money fades Raiders despite public backing
Canberra has shortened 15.8% at retail while drifting significantly longer on Betfair (42.2% longer than bookmaker average), combined with reverse line movement—this is public money chasing Raiders into retail books while informed exchange traders are actively fading them in favour of Penrith. The matchup-adjusted scoring projection (Penrith ~26.5 vs Canberra ~18.0) is the decisive signal: it factors in this specific matchup rather than season averages alone, and tells a far clearer story than raw season stats. Penrith loses elite playmaker Talagi, but Canberra loses three critical pieces (Sasagi, Starling, and the unnamed hooker replacement), which materially weakens their attack and dummy-half control.
Brisbane Broncos v Newcastle Knights
Sat, 1 Aug, 7:35 pm AEST
TipNewcastle Knightshighby ~5.5
$2.70 at betfair (before 5% commission) — best of 12 · model 65% v market 37% · edge +28
AI pickour model's read of the odds, form, team news and market moves
Why Newcastle Knights
Model edge
65% to win v the market's 37% — 28pt edge
Market line
Newcastle Knights by 5.5
Total
45.5 points
Best price
$2.70 at betfair (before 5% commission), best of 12
On the exchange
Newcastle Knights $2.70 on Betfair v $2.50 average at the bookies — exchange rating them less likely than the books
Newcastle sharp money despite Brisbane home field
Newcastle is receiving simultaneous sharp signals across multiple channels: a steam move (3 bookmakers shortened the away side in 2 hours), positive EV at current price (+2.3%), and critically, Kalyn Ponga returning while Dylan Brown (elite-tier halfback absence) is out for Brisbane. The apparent contradiction—Betfair pricing Newcastle 20.4% longer than retail books while retail has drifted Newcastle out—is resolved by recognizing that public money is chasing Brisbane's home record (58% venue win rate) and short opening odds, pushing their bookmaker price shorter, while Betfair's informed traders have already priced in Newcastle's structural advantages (elite personnel change) and are trading Newcastle's true value well above retail consensus. Matchup-adjusted projections (Newcastle ~25.5 pts vs Brisbane ~20.5 pts) favour Newcastle even accounting for Brisbane's home-ground edge. Brisbane's 67% loss rate this season and 33% half-time lead rate further undermine their prospects.
Cronulla Sharks v South Sydney Rabbitohs
Sun, 2 Aug, 2:00 pm AEST
TipCronulla Sharkshighby ~12.5
$1.27 at betfair (before 5% commission) — best of 12
AI pickour model's read of the odds, form, team news and market moves
Why Cronulla Sharks
Market line
Cronulla Sharks by 12.5
Total
51.5 points
Best price
$1.27 at betfair (before 5% commission), best of 12
At the bookies
Cronulla Sharks $1.37 in to $1.26 (-8.1%) · South Sydney Rabbitohs $3.09 out to $3.92 (+26.7%)
On the exchange
South Sydney Rabbitohs $4.50 on Betfair v $4.10 average at the bookies — exchange rating them less likely than the books
Sharks favoured despite mixed retail vs exchange signals
Sharp Betfair money rates Souths 44.3% longer than retail books, directly contradicting simultaneous bookmaker drift out on the away side—this reveals public money chasing Souths on retail platforms while informed exchange traders are fading them, a classic disconnect favouring Cronulla. Cronulla's superior defence (20 pts/game vs 24), stronger home record (59% wins), and half-time dominance (67% leads) combine with matchup-adjusted scoring projection (+2.5 pts) to build a clear edge; Souths' +4% EV at best price does not override the structural weight of these signals. Sasagi's absence (hamstring, tier unspecified) is noted but does not materially shift the case.
Wests Tigers v Parramatta Eels
Sun, 2 Aug, 4:05 pm AEST
TipWests Tigershighby ~7.5
$3.05 at betr — best of 12 · model 55% v market 33% · edge +22
AI pickour model's read of the odds, form, team news and market moves
Why Wests Tigers
Model edge
55% to win v the market's 33% — 22pt edge
Market line
Wests Tigers by 7.5
Total
48.5 points
Best price
$3.05 at betr, best of 12
At the bookies
Wests Tigers $2.65 out to $2.86 (+7.8%) · Parramatta Eels $1.50 in to $1.42 (-4.7%)
On the exchange
Parramatta Eels $1.50 on Betfair v $1.42 average at the bookies — exchange rating them less likely than the books
Sharp money fades Eels despite retail support
Betfair (informed money) prices Wests Tigers 17.6% longer than bookmakers, meaning sharps rate Tigers better than retail suggests—yet retail has also pushed Parramatta out 16.9% from opening while Betfair drifted them further, a classic reverse line movement where public backs Eels but exchange traders fade them. Tigers' halfback injury (Andrews out, replaced by Doueihi) is material but not elite-tier listed, so it doesn't override the sharp signal. The matchup-adjusted projections (Tigers 24.0, Eels 24.5) are nearly identical and offer no edge, but the exchange divergence and retail/exchange disconnect strongly favour Tigers: public money is chasing Eels, but smart money is not.
Round 22 results (3 played · we got 2 of 3)
Melbourne Storm v Canterbury Bulldogs
22 – 36
We tippedMelbourne StormMISS
WinnerMelbourne Storm to winMISS
LineMelbourne Storm +10.5MISS
St. George Illawarra Dragons v Dolphins
22 – 28
We tippedDolphinsHIT
WinnerDolphins to winHIT
LineDolphins -14.5MISS
North Queensland Cowboys v Sydney Roosters
12 – 82
We tippedSydney RoostersHIT
WinnerSydney Roosters to winHIT
LineSydney Roosters -5.5HIT
Other NRL tipsters
Worth reading alongside ours. We link out rather than reprint anyone's picks — and if you want to check whether we're actually any good, the record above compares us with backing the favourite, which is the bar most tipsters quietly sit on.
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