Who we're tipping in every round 25 game, the expected margin, and the best price of 12 bookmakers.
Our record, graded after every game
75%
24 of 32 winners tipped
5/14
Totals
17/33
Line
Head to head with the market, over the 10 games we can price-check:
Our tips
5/10
50%
Backing favourites
3/10
30%
Favourites win most NRL matches, so beating the market — not the raw strike rate — is the thing worth judging us on. When the market is ahead, this says so.
Closing line value +1.4%· beat the close 7 of 10
How our price at the time of the tip compared with where the market closed. Positive means we were on before the market moved our way — the measure of a good bet rather than a lucky one, since it counts losing tips exactly the same as winning ones.
The headline is our winner tips — the calls on this page. Totals and line are markets our model also grades itself on; they're shown because hiding the weaker ones would make the record worthless. Every pick is graded against the real result once the game finishes, misses included. Closing line value is measured from the first price we published, not the last refresh before kickoff.
TipPenrith PanthersmediumFinalChanged from Melbourne Storm · 4h agomarket line -8.5 — favoured by 8.5
Handicap & total markets
The winner market (the Tip above), this handicap read, and the total below are each priced on their own — not one prediction split three ways. They usually point the same way, but don't have to.
Line No view — the line looks fair
Total No view — the total looks fair
Same game multi
SGM: Penrith Panthers @ $1.35 (ladbrokes) + Thomas Jenkins anytime tryscorer (46% fair, ~$2.16 implied) — est. combined ~$2.92 (build the real price on your bookie's SGM slip)
Value bet — anytime tryscorer
Thomas Jenkins — our model rates him ~46% to score. We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
$1.35 at ladbrokes — best of 12
AI pickour model's read of the odds, form, team news and market moves
Full analysis
What we'd back
No bet
Nothing here clears our value bar across the winner, handicap and total points markets. Passing is a position.
TipCanberra RaidershighFinalmarket line -7.5 — favoured by 7.5
Handicap & total markets
The winner market (the Tip above), this handicap read, and the total below are each priced on their own — not one prediction split three ways. They usually point the same way, but don't have to.
Line No view — the line looks fair
Total Under 51.5 — we project 47.1
Same game multi
SGM: Canberra Raiders -7.5 @ $1.46 (ladbrokes) + Xavier Savage anytime tryscorer (38% fair, ~$2.67 implied) — est. combined ~$3.89 (build the real price on your bookie's SGM slip)
Value bet — anytime tryscorer
Xavier Savage — our model rates him ~38% to score. We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
TipDolphinshighFinalChanged from Parramatta Eels · 3d agomarket line -13.5 — favoured by 13.5
Handicap & total markets
The winner market (the Tip above), this handicap read, and the total below are each priced on their own — not one prediction split three ways. They usually point the same way, but don't have to.
Line Dolphins -13.5 — we project Dolphins to win by 18.2
Total No view — the total looks fair
Same game multi
SGM: Dolphins -13.5 @ $1.26 (tab) + Jamayne Isaako anytime tryscorer (49% fair, ~$2.05 implied) — est. combined ~$2.59 (build the real price on your bookie's SGM slip)
TipNewcastle KnightsmediumFinalChanged from Manly Sea Eagles · 3d agomarket line -8.5 — favoured by 8.5
Handicap & total markets
The winner market (the Tip above), this handicap read, and the total below are each priced on their own — not one prediction split three ways. They usually point the same way, but don't have to.
Line Manly Sea Eagles +8.5 — we project Manly Sea Eagles to lose by 3.9
Total Under 51.5 — we project 46.9
Value bet — anytime tryscorer
Greg Marzhew — our model rates him ~41% to score. We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
TipSouth Sydney RabbitohslowFinalChanged from New Zealand Warriors · 20h agomarket line +3.5 — getting 3.5 points start
Our AI's read of the odds, form and market moves favours South Sydney Rabbitohs. Our separate power-rating model — a statistical calculation from match results, not another AI call — leans towards New Zealand Warriors instead; see the Line market below for the margin. Confidence dropped to low because the two disagree.
Handicap & total markets
The handicap read below is where the power-rating model's disagreement with the Tip actually shows up — see why above. The total is unrelated and priced on its own.
Line No view — the line looks fair
Total No view — the total looks fair
Same game multi
SGM: South Sydney Rabbitohs +3.5 @ $2.35 (pointsbet) + Alex Johnston anytime tryscorer (59% fair, ~$1.70 implied) — est. combined ~$3.99 (build the real price on your bookie's SGM slip)
TipCanterbury BulldogsmediumFinalmarket line -6.5 — favoured by 6.5
Handicap & total markets
The winner market (the Tip above), this handicap read, and the total below are each priced on their own — not one prediction split three ways. They usually point the same way, but don't have to.
Line No view — the line looks fair
Total Under 44.5 — we project 38.3
Same game multi
SGM: Canterbury Bulldogs @ $1.47 (sportsbet) + Jacob Kiraz anytime tryscorer (38% fair, ~$2.67 implied) — est. combined ~$3.92 (build the real price on your bookie's SGM slip)
Value bet — anytime tryscorer
Jacob Kiraz — our model rates him ~38% to score. We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
TipCronulla SharkshighFinalmarket line -6.5 — favoured by 6.5
Handicap & total markets
The winner market (the Tip above), this handicap read, and the total below are each priced on their own — not one prediction split three ways. They usually point the same way, but don't have to.
Line Cronulla Sharks -6.5 — we project Cronulla Sharks to win by 13.6
Total No view — the total looks fair
Same game multi
SGM: Cronulla Sharks @ $1.50 (ladbrokes) + Ronaldo Mulitalo anytime tryscorer (44% fair, ~$2.26 implied) — est. combined ~$3.39 (build the real price on your bookie's SGM slip)
Value bet — anytime tryscorer
Ronaldo Mulitalo — our model rates him ~44% to score. We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
TipWests TigerslowFinalChanged from Sydney Roosters · 5h agomarket line +16.5 — getting 16.5 points start
Our AI's read of the odds, form and market moves favours Wests Tigers. Our separate power-rating model — a statistical calculation from match results, not another AI call — leans towards Sydney Roosters instead; see the Line market below for the margin. Confidence dropped to low because the two disagree.
Handicap & total markets
The handicap read below is where the power-rating model's disagreement with the Tip actually shows up — see why above. The total is unrelated and priced on its own.
Line Sydney Roosters -16.5 — we project Sydney Roosters to win by 21.8
Total Under 52.5 — we project 47.0
Best bet
$6.00
Round 25 ideas
Modelled, not priced — we don't hold real bookmaker odds for these markets, so unlike the tips above and the multi below, none of this is graded or part of the record. Ideas to check on your own bookmaker, not calls we're standing behind.
Tryscorer leans this round
Melbourne Storm v Penrith Panthers: Thomas Jenkins — our model rates him ~46% to score. We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
Canberra Raiders v Brisbane Broncos: Xavier Savage — our model rates him ~38% to score. We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
Dolphins v Parramatta Eels: Jamayne Isaako — our model rates him ~49% to score. We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
Newcastle Knights v Manly Sea Eagles: Greg Marzhew — our model rates him ~41% to score. We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
South Sydney Rabbitohs v New Zealand Warriors: Alex Johnston — our model rates him ~59% to score. We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
St. George Illawarra Dragons v Canterbury Bulldogs: Jacob Kiraz — our model rates him ~38% to score. We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
Gold Coast Titans v Cronulla Sharks: Ronaldo Mulitalo — our model rates him ~44% to score. We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
Sydney Roosters v Wests Tigers: Solomone Saukuru — our model rates him ~63% to score. We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
Half-time leader leans this round
Melbourne Storm v Penrith Panthers: Melbourne Storm 26% to lead at the break. Half a game is half the margin and proportionally more noise, so this is a rougher number than the full-time one.
Canberra Raiders v Brisbane Broncos: Canberra Raiders 66% to lead at the break. Half a game is half the margin and proportionally more noise, so this is a rougher number than the full-time one.
Dolphins v Parramatta Eels: Dolphins 83% to lead at the break. Half a game is half the margin and proportionally more noise, so this is a rougher number than the full-time one.
Newcastle Knights v Manly Sea Eagles: Newcastle Knights 56% to lead at the break. Half a game is half the margin and proportionally more noise, so this is a rougher number than the full-time one.
South Sydney Rabbitohs v New Zealand Warriors: South Sydney Rabbitohs 36% to lead at the break. Half a game is half the margin and proportionally more noise, so this is a rougher number than the full-time one.
St. George Illawarra Dragons v Canterbury Bulldogs: St. George Illawarra Dragons 36% to lead at the break. Half a game is half the margin and proportionally more noise, so this is a rougher number than the full-time one.
Gold Coast Titans v Cronulla Sharks: Gold Coast Titans 21% to lead at the break. Half a game is half the margin and proportionally more noise, so this is a rougher number than the full-time one.
Sydney Roosters v Wests Tigers: Sydney Roosters 87% to lead at the break. Half a game is half the margin and proportionally more noise, so this is a rougher number than the full-time one.
Everything above is free, and stays free
Every tip, every price and the whole graded record — no account needed. Pro doesn't unlock better tips, because there aren't any: it's for not having to keep checking this page yourself.
Told the moment a pick changes
A late scratching can move a line five points in an hour. When team news or the market flips our call, you get it by push, email or SMS — with the reason — instead of finding out next time you visit.
Alerts when the market moves
Price, EV, steam-move and arb alerts by push, email or SMS — so a price you'd have taken doesn't come and go while you're not looking.
Closing line value tracking
The honest measure of whether a bet was good rather than lucky, tracked across everything you back — not just what we tip.
Your own ROI dashboard
Profit and loss, units and long-run ROI on your real bets, so you're judging yourself on the same evidence we publish about ourselves.
The finders, and Pro Edge
Live arbitrage and +EV screens across all 11 books, plus the per-match model read behind the picks on this page.
Every tip on this page is generated by our model from live odds across 11 Australian bookmakers, team news, form and market movement. No human tipster writes them, and each one is labelled as an AI pick.
How accurate are the tips?
Every pick is graded against the real result once the game finishes, misses included, and the running record is published at the top of the page alongside what simply backing the favourite would have returned over the same matches. Favourites win most NRL games, so beating the market is the meaningful comparison.
Are the tips free?
Yes. The tips, the graded record and the odds comparison are all free with no account required.
How do you decide a handicap or total is worth backing?
The same way we judge the head-to-head market: by comparing each bookmaker's price against the consensus of the other bookmakers offering that same line, with the margin stripped out. If one book is materially out of step with its competitors, that is real, checkable value — you can see it yourself by comparing the prices. We deliberately do not call it value when our own projection simply disagrees with the market: on a near-even-money handicap that makes any disagreement look enormous, and a liquid market is usually right. Our projection decides which side we tip, not whether a price is good.
What does the best price mean?
It is the highest price for that selection across the 11 bookmakers we track. Where the best price is on Betfair we say so, because the exchange takes 5% commission on winnings and the price you see is not the price you collect.
Other NRL tipsters
Worth reading alongside ours. We link out rather than reprint anyone's picks — and if you want to check whether we're actually any good, the record above compares us with backing the favourite, which is the bar most tipsters quietly sit on.
EdgeBoard earns a commission when you sign up or deposit at a bookmaker via our links. This does not affect the odds we display — all prices are fetched directly from each bookmaker. Gamble responsibly. Gambling Help Online 1800 858 858.
The most likely outcome in each market by our numbers — not a value call, since we hold no prices for any of these. They're all the same game and move together, so don't multiply them: your bookmaker's same-game price already accounts for that.
Same-game multi
SGM: Penrith Panthers @ $1.35 (ladbrokes) + Thomas Jenkins anytime tryscorer (46% fair, ~$2.16 implied) — est. combined ~$2.92 (build the real price on your bookie's SGM slip)
Margins & lines3
Winning margin bands
Penrith Panthers by 13+45%
Penrith Panthers by 1-1234%
Melbourne Storm by 1-1215%
Melbourne Storm by 13+4%
Draw2%
How we got this
Our estimate from a projected margin of -11 for Melbourne Storm, assuming margins scatter about 13 points either side. Not a market price — compare it against what your bookmaker is offering.
Handicaps on offer
Penrith Panthers -8.558%
Penrith Panthers -9.555%
How we got this
Shop for the line, not just the price.
Half-time leader
Melbourne Storm26%
How we got this
Half a game is half the margin and proportionally more noise, so this is a rougher number than the full-time one.
Totals1
Under 4034%
40-4928%
50-5923%
60+16%
How we got this
From a projected 45.4 points, assuming totals scatter about 14 either side.
Tryscorers3
Two or more tries
Thomas Jenkins13%
Brian To'o7%
How we got this
These pay long for a reason.
Either player to score
Thomas Jenkins or Brian To'o84%
How we got this
At least one of them scored in 16 of the 19 games they've played together this season, so this counts their real record as a pair rather than treating two teammates as unrelated.
Anytime tryscorer
Thomas Jenkins46%
How we got this
We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
Penrith's elite depth holds despite top-four lock status
Matchup-adjusted projections show Penrith scoring 26.0 pts against Melbourne's elite defence, versus Melbourne's 19.0 pts against Penrith's league-leading 14 pts/game conceded—a 7-point gap strongly favours the away side. Melbourne's 76% home record is real, but offset by two critical elite-tier absences (Watson at halfback, Wishart at hooker) that materially weaken their playmaking, while Penrith's only elite absence (Edgar at fullback) is less critical to their structured attack. Penrith has blown only 2 half-time leads recently versus Melbourne's 6, and Penrith leads at half-time 76% of the time—they control games and don't surrender them. Top-four lock status and finals footing suggest rotation risk, but the team news shows elite players still playing (just repositioned), not rested entirely.
$1.46 at ladbrokes — best of 12 · experts 0-2 our way
AI pickour model's read of the odds, form, team news and market moves
Full analysis
What we'd back
No bet
Nothing here clears our value bar across the winner, handicap and total points markets. Passing is a position.
We can't price these, so they never enter our record. Ideas to check on your own bookmaker, not calls we're standing behind.
If we were building one2
Canberra Raiders by 13+38%
Canberra Raiders -6.556%
Under 40 points29%
Xavier Savage to score38%
How we got this
The most likely outcome in each market by our numbers — not a value call, since we hold no prices for any of these. They're all the same game and move together, so don't multiply them: your bookmaker's same-game price already accounts for that.
Same-game multi
SGM: Canberra Raiders -7.5 @ $1.46 (ladbrokes) + Xavier Savage anytime tryscorer (38% fair, ~$2.67 implied) — est. combined ~$3.89 (build the real price on your bookie's SGM slip)
Margins & lines3
Winning margin bands
Canberra favoured despite expert consensus on Brisbane
Sharp money has moved Canberra in 15.8%, while Brisbane has drifted 30.8%—a classic bookmaker liability signal where public money backs the away team (all expert tippers are on Brisbane), but the books are repricing against that liability. The real tell is the matchup-adjusted projection: Canberra scores 24.5 pts against Brisbane's defence while limiting Brisbane to 21.5 pts, materially better than raw season averages. Brisbane are crippled by elite-tier absences (Reece Walsh out, Thomas Duffy moved to bench), have lost 71% of games this season, lead at half-time in only 33% of recent games, and have blown three recent half-time leads—they're a team with nothing left to play for. Canberra's 59% home record and superior matchup-adjusted scoring projection outweigh the expert consensus, which appears driven by public recency rather than structural advantage.
Jamayne Isaako — our model rates him ~49% to score. We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
$1.26 at tab — best of 12 · experts 1-0 our way
AI pickour model's read of the odds, form, team news and market moves
Full analysis
What we'd back
No bet
Nothing here clears our value bar across the winner, handicap and total points markets. Passing is a position.
We can't price these, so they never enter our record. Ideas to check on your own bookmaker, not calls we're standing behind.
If we were building one2
Dolphins by 13+67%
Dolphins -13.564%
60+ points28%
Jamayne Isaako to score49%
How we got this
The most likely outcome in each market by our numbers — not a value call, since we hold no prices for any of these. They're all the same game and move together, so don't multiply them: your bookmaker's same-game price already accounts for that.
Same-game multi
SGM: Dolphins -13.5 @ $1.26 (tab) + Jamayne Isaako anytime tryscorer (49% fair, ~$2.05 implied) — est. combined ~$2.59 (build the real price on your bookie's SGM slip)
Margins & lines3
Winning margin bands
Dolphins home value; Eels' sharp money fade
Dolphins are backed by 100% of expert tippers, superior season scoring (27 vs 20 pts/game) and defence (21 vs 28 pts conceded), better tackle efficiency (89.4% vs 85.8%), and 59% home venue record. The matchup-adjusted projection reinforces this edge (Dolphins ~27.5 pts vs Eels ~20.5 pts). However, Betfair prices Eels 26.2% shorter than bookmaker average—a signal of informed money rating Eels better than retail books—yet simultaneously Betfair has drifted Eels out while bookmakers shortened them. This apparent contradiction is reconciled by public money pushing Eels shorter on retail books (driving liability concerns), while sharp Betfair traders are actually betting against that momentum, preferring Dolphins. Dolphins' return of Max Plath (strong tier) outweighs Eels' context (well outside top 8, nothing to play for), and Eels' poor half-time leading rate (33% in last 21 games) and 62% loss rate this season compound structural weakness.
our model's read of the odds, form, team news and market moves
Full analysis
What we'd back
Arbitrage — 0.3% guaranteed
Back Newcastle Knights at neds and Manly Sea Eagles at tab. Profits either way.
We can't price these, so they never enter our record. Ideas to check on your own bookmaker, not calls we're standing behind.
If we were building one1
Newcastle Knights by 1-1235%
Newcastle Knights -8.536%
Under 40 points30%
Greg Marzhew to score41%
How we got this
The most likely outcome in each market by our numbers — not a value call, since we hold no prices for any of these. They're all the same game and move together, so don't multiply them: your bookmaker's same-game price already accounts for that.
Margins & lines3
Winning margin bands
Newcastle Knights by 1-12
Manly drifting but home form and expert consensus backs Newcastle
All 100% of expert tippers favour Newcastle at home, where they win 54% of games — a clear consensus signal. However, Manly has drifted 18% from opening, suggesting public money is pushing them out on bookmakers, likely reacting to the loss of elite-tier Joey Walsh at five-eighth (replaced by Clayton Faulalo moving from fullback). The matchup-adjusted scoring projections (Newcastle ~23.5 pts, Manly ~23.0 pts) show Newcastle should edge Manly in this specific matchup once opponent defence is factored in, but the gap is marginal. Manly's strength at half-time (71% of last 21 games led at HT) and recent fade pattern (blown 6 leads recently) is offset by Newcastle's own fade risk (blown 2 leads recently), creating mutual volatility. The Joey Walsh absence is material enough to weaken Manly's attack, but the bookmaker drift — driven by public money on the upset — conflicts with expert and matchup-adjusted signals that still favour the home side.
Value bet — anytime tryscorer
Alex Johnston — our model rates him ~59% to score. We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
$2.35 at pointsbet — best of 12 · model 56% v market 41% · edge +15 · experts 1-0 our way
AI pickour model's read of the odds, form, team news and market moves
Full analysis
What we'd back
No bet
Nothing here clears our value bar across the winner, handicap and total points markets. Passing is a position.
Signal strength 25/100
★Our read v the market
our AI rates them 56% to win against the market's 41% — a 15pt gap
South Sydney Rabbitohs $2.04 on Betfair v $2.29 average at the bookies — exchange backing them harder than the books
Why the pick changed
New Zealand Warriors: Luke Metcalf OUT (Injury; 22-year-old half to step up as replacement) — elite tier; New Zealand Warriors: Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad OUT (not named — replaced at Fullback by Taine Tuaupiki) — elite tier. We were on New Zealand Warriors before this.
Signal
100% of tippers backing the Rabbitohs (1 expert across 1 source)
We can't price these, so they never enter our record. Ideas to check on your own bookmaker, not calls we're standing behind.
If we were building one2
South Sydney Rabbitohs by 1-1224%
South Sydney Rabbitohs +3.544%
40-49 points27%
Alex Johnston to score59%
How we got this
The most likely outcome in each market by our numbers — not a value call, since we hold no prices for any of these. They're all the same game and move together, so don't multiply them: your bookmaker's same-game price already accounts for that.
Same-game multi
SGM: South Sydney Rabbitohs +3.5 @ $2.35 (pointsbet) + Alex Johnston anytime tryscorer (59% fair, ~$1.70 implied) — est. combined ~$3.99 (build the real price on your bookie's SGM slip)
Margins & lines3
Winning margin bands
Warriors elite absences outweigh Rabbitohs home edge
New Zealand Warriors have lost two elite-tier players (Nicoll-Klokstad at fullback, Metcalf at halfback), replacing them with a rookie halves pairing and untested fullback depth. This structural damage to their spine is material enough to overturn Warriors' top-4 lock status and secure finals footing; South Sydney are fighting for finals and get Latrell Mitchell back. The matchup-adjusted scoring projection shows Warriors at 25.5 points vs. Rabbitohs' 21.0 — but that projection was built on Warriors' season-long personnel, not their actual round-6 lineup. Betfair rates Rabbitohs 15.3% shorter than bookmaker average (sharp money backing home), line has shortened 5.9%, and all expert tippers are on Rabbitohs, yet Warriors' halfback and fullback injuries are elite-tier absences that downgrade the team materially below season form.
$1.47 at sportsbet — best of 12 · experts 0-2 our way
AI pickour model's read of the odds, form, team news and market moves
Full analysis
What we'd back
No bet
Nothing here clears our value bar across the winner, handicap and total points markets. Passing is a position.
We can't price these, so they never enter our record. Ideas to check on your own bookmaker, not calls we're standing behind.
If we were building one2
Canterbury Bulldogs by 1-1235%
Canterbury Bulldogs -5.550%
Under 40 points53%
Jacob Kiraz to score38%
How we got this
The most likely outcome in each market by our numbers — not a value call, since we hold no prices for any of these. They're all the same game and move together, so don't multiply them: your bookmaker's same-game price already accounts for that.
Same-game multi
SGM: Canterbury Bulldogs @ $1.47 (sportsbet) + Jacob Kiraz anytime tryscorer (38% fair, ~$2.67 implied) — est. combined ~$3.92 (build the real price on your bookie's SGM slip)
Margins & lines3
Winning margin bands
Canterbury value despite expert consensus on Dragons
St. George Illawarra has shortened 6.9% and 100% of experts are on home, yet the Dragons are 81% losers this season, sit outside the top 8 with nothing to play for, and have lost Damien Cook's elite-tier impact at hooker (now interchange). Matchup-adjusted projections show Canterbury at 23.5 pts vs Dragons at 19.0 pts into this specific matchup, and Canterbury's 19 pts/game season average outpaces what Dragons' defence concedes (28 pts/game). Retail bookmakers are chasing public money on the favourite, but the actual form, team news, and matchup-adjusted scoring favour the away side.
$1.50 at ladbrokes — best of 12 · experts 0-1 our way
AI pickour model's read of the odds, form, team news and market moves
Full analysis
What we'd back
No bet
Nothing here clears our value bar across the winner, handicap and total points markets. Passing is a position.
We can't price these, so they never enter our record. Ideas to check on your own bookmaker, not calls we're standing behind.
If we were building one2
Cronulla Sharks by 13+53%
Cronulla Sharks -5.573%
50-59 points26%
Ronaldo Mulitalo to score44%
How we got this
The most likely outcome in each market by our numbers — not a value call, since we hold no prices for any of these. They're all the same game and move together, so don't multiply them: your bookmaker's same-game price already accounts for that.
Same-game multi
SGM: Cronulla Sharks @ $1.50 (ladbrokes) + Ronaldo Mulitalo anytime tryscorer (44% fair, ~$2.26 implied) — est. combined ~$3.39 (build the real price on your bookie's SGM slip)
Margins & lines3
Winning margin bands
Sharks value despite public money on Titans
Cronulla are 19.0% shorter in the market while fighting for finals (inside top 8) against a checked-out Titans side (outside top 8, 71% loss rate), yet 100% of tippers back the home team—classic retail-money flip where bookmakers are repricing Titans due to public liability while sharper action favours Sharks. The critical blow is Braydon Trindall (elite tier) out for Cronulla; however, their 82% completion rate and 20 pts conceded (vs Titans' 27 pts conceded) suggest structural defensive strength that persists even with a half-strength Five-eighth rotation. Gold Coast's 43% home win rate and 24% half-time lead frequency underscore a weak outfit, and Cronulla's matchup-adjusted projection (27.5 pts) exceeds Titans' (19.5 pts) despite the personnel loss—the Sharks' system and urgency are outweighing individual unavailability.
Wests Tigers to win at $6.00 (pointsbet)
+6.5% expected value against the market's own consensus price. Note this is where the value is, which isn't always the side we tip to win.
SGM: Wests Tigers @ $6.00 (pointsbet) + Solomone Saukuru anytime tryscorer (63% fair, ~$1.58 implied) — est. combined ~$9.49 (build the real price on your bookie's SGM slip)
Value bet — anytime tryscorer
Solomone Saukuru — our model rates him ~63% to score. We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
$6.00 at pointsbet — best of 12 · model 42% v market 16% · edge +26 · experts 1-0 our way
AI pickour model's read of the odds, form, team news and market moves
Full analysis
What we'd back
Wests Tigers to win at $6.00 (pointsbet)
+6.5% expected value against the market's own consensus price. Note this is where the value is, which isn't always the side we tip to win.
Our read v the market
our AI rates them 42% to win against the market's 16% — a 26pt gap. A gap that wide against 11 bookmakers usually means our model is out, not the market
We can't price these, so they never enter our record. Ideas to check on your own bookmaker, not calls we're standing behind.
If we were building one2
Wests Tigers by 1-124%
Wests Tigers +16.534%
Under 40 points30%
Solomone Saukuru to score63%
How we got this
The most likely outcome in each market by our numbers — not a value call, since we hold no prices for any of these. They're all the same game and move together, so don't multiply them: your bookmaker's same-game price already accounts for that.
Same-game multi
SGM: Wests Tigers @ $6.00 (pointsbet) + Solomone Saukuru anytime tryscorer (63% fair, ~$1.58 implied) — est. combined ~$9.49 (build the real price on your bookie's SGM slip)
Margins & lines3
Winning margin bands
Roosters solid, but Tigers value shines through
Sydney Roosters have shortened 3.4% at the bookmaker while Wests Tigers have drifted 10.5%, but Betfair sharp money rates Tigers at +6.5% EV—a classic retail/exchange divergence where public money is pushing Tigers out on bookmakers while informed traders still see edge. The contradiction resolves: retail books are reacting to Roosters' top-4 security and favourable home record (64% wins), but Wests Tigers' elite-tier loss of Doueihi is already priced into Betfair's assessment, and Tigers' matchup-adjusted projection (19.0 pts) is realistic given their season-long weakness (67% loss rate, 29 pts conceded average). Roosters' matchup-adjusted 27.5 pts is credible, but the combination of Tigers' +6.5% EV signal, Doueihi's absence already digested by sharps, and Roosters' finals-mode likely rotation gives Tigers the value edge at current price.
Canberra Raiders by 13+38%
Canberra Raiders by 1-1235%
Brisbane Broncos by 1-1219%
Brisbane Broncos by 13+5%
Draw2%
How we got this
Our estimate from a projected margin of +8.6 for Canberra Raiders, assuming margins scatter about 13 points either side. Not a market price — compare it against what your bookmaker is offering.
Handicaps on offer
Canberra Raiders -7.553%
Canberra Raiders -6.556%
How we got this
Shop for the line, not just the price.
Half-time leader
Canberra Raiders66%
How we got this
Half a game is half the margin and proportionally more noise, so this is a rougher number than the full-time one.
Totals1
Under 4029%
40-4927%
50-5924%
60+19%
How we got this
From a projected 47.1 points, assuming totals scatter about 14 either side.
Tryscorers3
Two or more tries
Xavier Savage8%
Kaeo Weekes6%
How we got this
These pay long for a reason.
Either player to score
Xavier Savage or Kaeo Weekes59%
How we got this
At least one of them scored in 10 of the 17 games they've played together this season, so this counts their real record as a pair rather than treating two teammates as unrelated.
Anytime tryscorer
Xavier Savage38%
How we got this
We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
Dolphins by 13+67%
Dolphins by 1-1224%
Parramatta Eels by 1-127%
Draw1%
How we got this
Our estimate from a projected margin of +18.2 for Dolphins, assuming margins scatter about 13 points either side. Not a market price — compare it against what your bookmaker is offering.
Handicaps on offer
Dolphins -13.564%
How we got this
Shop for the line, not just the price.
Half-time leader
Dolphins83%
How we got this
Half a game is half the margin and proportionally more noise, so this is a rougher number than the full-time one.
Totals1
Under 4020%
40-4925%
50-5927%
60+28%
How we got this
From a projected 51.3 points, assuming totals scatter about 14 either side.
Tryscorers3
Two or more tries
Jamayne Isaako14%
Selwyn Cobbo13%
How we got this
These pay long for a reason.
Either player to score
Jamayne Isaako or Selwyn Cobbo88%
How we got this
At least one of them scored in 14 of the 16 games they've played together this season, so this counts their real record as a pair rather than treating two teammates as unrelated.
Anytime tryscorer
Jamayne Isaako49%
How we got this
We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
35%
Manly Sea Eagles by 1-1226%
Newcastle Knights by 13+25%
Manly Sea Eagles by 13+10%
Draw3%
How we got this
Our estimate from a projected margin of +3.9 for Newcastle Knights, assuming margins scatter about 13 points either side. Not a market price — compare it against what your bookmaker is offering.
Handicaps on offer
Newcastle Knights -8.536%
How we got this
Shop for the line, not just the price.
Half-time leader
Newcastle Knights56%
How we got this
Half a game is half the margin and proportionally more noise, so this is a rougher number than the full-time one.
Totals1
Under 4030%
40-4928%
50-5924%
60+18%
How we got this
From a projected 46.9 points, assuming totals scatter about 14 either side.
Tryscorers3
Two or more tries
Greg Marzhew10%
Dominic Young9%
How we got this
These pay long for a reason.
Either player to score
Greg Marzhew or Dominic Young76%
How we got this
At least one of them scored in 16 of the 21 games they've played together this season, so this counts their real record as a pair rather than treating two teammates as unrelated.
Anytime tryscorer
Greg Marzhew41%
How we got this
We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
New Zealand Warriors by 1-1235%
New Zealand Warriors by 13+30%
South Sydney Rabbitohs by 1-1224%
South Sydney Rabbitohs by 13+8%
Draw3%
How we got this
Our estimate from a projected margin of -5.6 for South Sydney Rabbitohs, assuming margins scatter about 13 points either side. Not a market price — compare it against what your bookmaker is offering.
Handicaps on offer
New Zealand Warriors -3.556%
How we got this
Shop for the line, not just the price.
Half-time leader
South Sydney Rabbitohs36%
How we got this
Half a game is half the margin and proportionally more noise, so this is a rougher number than the full-time one.
Totals1
Under 4027%
40-4927%
50-5925%
60+21%
How we got this
From a projected 48.1 points, assuming totals scatter about 14 either side.
Tryscorers3
Two or more tries
Alex Johnston22%
Campbell Graham10%
How we got this
These pay long for a reason.
Either player to score
Alex Johnston or Campbell Graham92%
How we got this
At least one of them scored in 12 of the 13 games they've played together this season, so this counts their real record as a pair rather than treating two teammates as unrelated.
Anytime tryscorer
Alex Johnston59%
How we got this
We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
Canterbury Bulldogs by 1-1235%
Canterbury Bulldogs by 13+29%
St. George Illawarra Dragons by 1-1224%
St. George Illawarra Dragons by 13+8%
Draw3%
How we got this
Our estimate from a projected margin of -5.4 for St. George Illawarra Dragons, assuming margins scatter about 13 points either side. Not a market price — compare it against what your bookmaker is offering.
Handicaps on offer
Canterbury Bulldogs -5.550%
Canterbury Bulldogs -6.547%
Canterbury Bulldogs -7.544%
How we got this
Shop for the line, not just the price.
Half-time leader
St. George Illawarra Dragons36%
How we got this
Half a game is half the margin and proportionally more noise, so this is a rougher number than the full-time one.
Totals1
Under 4053%
40-4925%
50-5915%
60+6%
How we got this
From a projected 38.3 points, assuming totals scatter about 14 either side.
Tryscorers3
Two or more tries
Jacob Kiraz8%
How we got this
These pay long for a reason.
Either player to score
Jacob Kiraz or Stephen Crichton62%
How we got this
At least one of them scored in 8 of the 13 games they've played together this season, so this counts their real record as a pair rather than treating two teammates as unrelated.
Anytime tryscorer
Jacob Kiraz38%
How we got this
We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
Cronulla Sharks by 13+53%
Cronulla Sharks by 1-1231%
Gold Coast Titans by 1-1212%
Gold Coast Titans by 13+2%
Draw2%
How we got this
Our estimate from a projected margin of -13.6 for Gold Coast Titans, assuming margins scatter about 13 points either side. Not a market price — compare it against what your bookmaker is offering.
Handicaps on offer
Cronulla Sharks -5.573%
Cronulla Sharks -6.571%
How we got this
Shop for the line, not just the price.
Half-time leader
Gold Coast Titans21%
How we got this
Half a game is half the margin and proportionally more noise, so this is a rougher number than the full-time one.
Totals1
Under 4023%
40-4926%
50-5926%
60+25%
How we got this
From a projected 49.9 points, assuming totals scatter about 14 either side.
Tryscorers3
Two or more tries
Ronaldo Mulitalo12%
Sione Katoa10%
How we got this
These pay long for a reason.
Either player to score
Ronaldo Mulitalo or Sione Katoa78%
How we got this
At least one of them scored in 7 of the 9 games they've played together this season, so this counts their real record as a pair rather than treating two teammates as unrelated.
Anytime tryscorer
Ronaldo Mulitalo44%
How we got this
We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.
Sydney Roosters by 13+76%
Sydney Roosters by 1-1219%
Wests Tigers by 1-124%
How we got this
Our estimate from a projected margin of +21.8 for Sydney Roosters, assuming margins scatter about 13 points either side. Not a market price — compare it against what your bookmaker is offering.
Handicaps on offer
Sydney Roosters -16.566%
How we got this
Shop for the line, not just the price.
Half-time leader
Sydney Roosters87%
How we got this
Half a game is half the margin and proportionally more noise, so this is a rougher number than the full-time one.
Totals1
Under 4030%
40-4927%
50-5924%
60+19%
How we got this
From a projected 47 points, assuming totals scatter about 14 either side.
Tryscorers3
Two or more tries
Solomone Saukuru26%
How we got this
These pay long for a reason.
Either player to score
Solomone Saukuru or Samuela Fainu73%
How we got this
They haven't played enough games together this season to count their record as a pair, so this multiplies their individual rates — and since teammates' tries rise and fall with how much their side scores, read it as a slight overestimate.
Anytime tryscorer
Solomone Saukuru63%
How we got this
We hold no tryscorer prices, so check yours for value.